Producers change production and marketing
To the naked eye, two of Dale Kuehl’s fields looked identical in late August—amazingly good, in  fact, for one of the worst droughts since the Dust Bowl. Upon closer inspection, though, the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour scouts found that one field had nearly double the yield potential.

So how did two fields, literally side by side, end up with varying production levels? Kuehl, who farms near Atlantic, Iowa, thinks it all comes down to hybrids. The field projected to yield 202 bu. per acre was planted with a new drought-resistant hybrid. The hybrid projected to yield 122 bu. per acre, a top performer in 2011 for Kuehl with more than 200 bu. per acre, did not contain the  droughtresistant genes. Kuehl planted the drought-resistant hybrid on 15% to 20% of his acreage this spring.

Will Kuehl plant a higher percentage of drought-resistant corn in 2013? “It’s a real possibility,” he says, not yet committing to next year’s seed until he sees what his yield monitor shows at  harvest.

If the drought lingers to next spring, one Nebraska producer says, he might plant all soybeans and no corn since soybeans can produce a crop with less moisture.

The drought is altering more than agronomic practices. It’s also changing producers’ marketing strategies. Normally, Kuehl sells a percentage of corn throughout the growing season. This year, he’s holding off on marketing until he sees how many bushels he ends up with, not wanting to lock in contracts for corn he can’t deliver. Once he is confident of his final yield number, he plans to be aggressive if he can sell corn for $8. “If you have $8, there’s no reason to stick it in the bin and hope for $9 or $10,” Kuehl says.

With an eye on the future, Illinois producer Byron Jones says the drought has altered how he will market his 2013 corn and soybeans. In a departure from his typical sales pattern, he expects to pre-sell more than normal. He plans to forward sell 15% to 20% of both corn and soybeans by harvest, and that much again in early January.

“This is an election year and farmers are forgotten about after the election,” Jones says. Moreover, going all the way back to 1970, history shows that a short crop has a long tail, and thus price peaks could occur either prior to harvest or shortly thereafter.

“This will be a hedge against lower prices,” the Saybrook, Ill., producer says of his strategies.Based on what Jones saw in fields, he believes the national yield will be lower because of small kernel size and low test weights.

The best time to market 2012 corn is when the market is trying to cut back use and destroy demand, which might be soon, if not now, says Pro Farmer editor Chip Flory. As a result, the price peak might have already been reached. “That’s not to say we won’t have another run-up to retest the highs,” he adds.

Hefty Discount for 2013. As for marketing next year’s crop, the discount of December 2013 versus 2012 futures was a whopping $1.56 in August. That said, “it’s still $6.50 corn,” Flory says. He sees nothing wrong with selling up to 20% of expected 2013 corn, but no more than that. He anticipates anothermarketing opportunity to occur next February and March when corn and soybeans duke it out for acres. “I just don’t see a lot of downside risk for December 2013 corn,” he says.

By: Ed Clark, Top Producer Business and Issues Editor

Read More: http://www.agweb.com/article/drought_influences_2013_decisions/

Map shows designations due to drought across the country under USDA’s amended rule. Any county declared a primary (red) or contiguous (orange) disaster county makes producers in that county eligible for certain emergency aid.

http://www.usda.gov/documents/usda-drought-fast-track-designations-101012.pdf

Recent rainfalls have delayed harvest around the state.  For Jay County, Indiana farmer Dave Lowe yields so far have been about what they expected – and even in some places a little better.  “Corn has been below average,” he says.  “It varies from spot to spot in the field tremendously – from 0 to 200 in some places.”

Lowe tells Brownfield he has been really surprised at the quality of the corn crop this year.  “The test weight has been superb, the quality has been really good, and the kernel weight has been really good,” he says.  “That actually brought our yields up some.”

He says he is about a third completed with corn harvest and is just getting started on beans.

But, Lowe notes, those late rainfalls changed their expectations for this year’s bean crop.  “The beans really changed,” he says.  “We had expected just an average crop of beans – but it appears beans are better than average so far and the quality of the bean has just been excellent.”

By Meghan Grebner

http://brownfieldagnews.com/2012/10/09/some-harvest-surprises/

Late-week freezes can be expected throughout the northern and central Plains and much of the Midwest.

During the weekend, any residual warmth will be confined to the Far West and the lower Southeast. Precipitation associated with the cold outbreak will be limited, although some 1- to 2-inch rainfall totals may occur late in the week from the Mid-South into the Northeast. Snow across the north-central U.S., including parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota, will end tonight or early Friday.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for October 9-13 calls for near- to below-normal temperatures nationwide, except for warmer-than-normal weather in the south-central U.S. and the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, above-normal precipitation in southern portions of the Rockies and Plains, and from the Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast, will contrast with drier-than-normal conditions in the western Gulf Coast region and from the Pacific Northwest into the upper Midwest.

Regional Weather Forecasts:

In the West, markedly cooler air is overspreading the interior Northwest, where very dry conditions remain an impediment to the emergence and establishment of rain-fed winter grains. Meanwhile, the threat of wildfire activity is increasing across the Four Corners region under a warm, windy, dry weather regime.

On the Plains, a few thunderstorms—associated with the passage of a strong cold front—are affecting east-central portions of the region. In the wake of the front’s passage, cold air blankets the northern Plains, while snow lingers in portions of North Dakota. The sudden cold spell is slowing winter wheat emergence, although the northern Plains’ wheat will eventually benefit from yesterday’s precipitation, which in Montana included 1.3 inches of snow in Great Falls and nearly a half-inch of rain in Havre.

In the Corn Belt, the passage of a strong cold front—and its attendant rainfall—is slowing the record-setting pace of corn and soybean harvesting across the upper Midwest. Meanwhile in the eastern Corn Belt, a final day of warm weather favors fieldwork.

In the South, scattered showers linger in the Atlantic Coast States, but warm, dry weather across the remainder of the region favors harvest activities and other autumn fieldwork.

http://www.agweb.com/article/coldest_air_of_season_spreads_across_midwest/